Mike's Pre-Season Predictions

Last year I couldn't even predict how the season would turn out when we adjusted our picks as late as Labor Day. So I'm not very confident that I'll come up with anything good here today. While I think there are a lot of really good teams, nearly every team is seriously flawed or has significant questions.

Anyway, on to the predictions:

AL East - Boston Red Sox
I probably pick the BoSox every year. But this year I really believe it. I think Dice-K will contend not only for Rookie of the Year honors, but for the Cy Young too. If Schilling and Beckett stay healthy (big ifs), this team is stacked. Still, it's weird that Julian Tavarez (!) is in the starting rotation.

The Red Sox hopes are aided by the apparent weakness of the Yankees' starting rotation. The Yankees will score a lot of runs, but they'll need to. Carl Pavano is starting on opening day; coming into the camp it wasn't clear that he'd make the opening day roster. And it was just a few weeks ago that there were serious talks about Kei Igawa ending up in the minors. Now he's towards the top of the rotation to start the year.

I like the Blue Jays, but I don't think they can overcome the division's two super powers. The same is true of the O's and Rays. Both clubs are probably better, but I'm not convinced their place in the standings will change this year.

AL Central - Detroit Tigers
This was a really tough pick for me. There are at least three, and probably four, teams that are legit contenders for the division title and the AL pennant.

Some thoughts on everyone but the Royals: the Twins, despite how great their front office is, have a rotation full of question marks. It's Santana and who? Scary stuff.

The Tigers are likely to regress this year. Aren't they? I think they're subject to the same type of slump the White Sox had last year. That said, they could still win 90 games. The Tigers added Sheffield to the lineup this offseason (like the Sox adding Thome last year). He'll be a big improvement. They also get a full year from Mike Maroth. But can the starter and the bullpen be as good as they were last year? How long can Todd Jones continue to be better than he was when he was young?

I wanted to pick the White Sox, but I just can't. Too many questions and weird decisions being made. That said, I have a hard time questioning Ozzie Guillen and Kenny Williams. The team's on field performance the past few years has been pretty impressive. If the rotation stays healthy and performs closer to 2005 levels, the Sox will likely win the division. Not sure if that can really happen though. There are huge concerns about the lineup, particularly at the top. But that doesn't matter as much as the pitching. I particularly like the nicknames of Peter Pan and Tinkerbell for Podsednik and Erstad, although the nicknames make me sad at the same time.

I really like the Indians too, but their pitching isn't improved. That was there problem last year. Peralta should be better and that will help. But he can't do much about holding a late, close lead. That will be their downfall.

AL West - LA Angels
I'm running out of steam, so this will be briefer. I like the Angels. They made a strong push late last year. And I think the A's are a little worse than last year (no Zito). Can Piazza replace Thomas? We'll see.

The Rangers are my dark horse though. The last two teams to get rid of Buck Showalter won the whole thing the next season.

NL East - Atlanta Braves
For years I said I would pick the Braves until they finally lost. Now they lost and I'm still picking them. Why? Well, who's going to pitch for the Mets? The lineup is sick, but the pitching staff is anemic.

The trendy pick is probably the Phillies, but how are they going to do it? Can Howard be as good again this year as he was last year? Teams will pitch around him until Burrell or someone else produces. Freddy Garcia is a nice pickup, but there's a reason the Sox were willing to give him up. Freddy could allow as many homers at CBP as Howard hits. And the Phillies bullpen does not inspire awe.

The Braves lost a lot of late leads last year. They spent the offseason trying to improve their pen. I'm not convinced, but Schuerholz and Cox have a decent track record, to say the least. If the Braves' pen improves and the Mets regress even just a little bit, the division is the Braves for the taking.

The Marlins are kidding themselves. It will be a nice story if they can contend again. Willis will rebound. But can the sophomores in the rotation duplicate their rookie success? And why would anyone pitch to Miguel Cabrera?

If the Nationals can avoid losing the most games in ML history, it will be a significant accomplishment.

NL Central - Milwaukee Brewers
This division is brutal. If anyone wins 85 games, I think they'll take it. Really just about anyone other than the Pirates could win the division. And by saying that, I probably added 5 games to the Pirates win total.

Last year the Cardinals won the division with 83 wins. It's not that they're a bad team. There are a lot of good (but not great) teams in this division and they beat the crap out of each other.

The Cardinals rotation is a mess. The Cubs spent a fortune on upgrades this offseason, but have no pitching after Zambrano to speak of. The Brewers could be interesting if they stay healthy. The Astros could be interesting if they get Clemens, but I doubt that will happen. And the Reds could surprise if their pitching lives up to insider expectations. If the outfielders stay healthy (big if), the Reds have a big bat to trade for a pitcher in July.

All I can say about the Pirates is that they have Jason Bay. Don't tell me about Freddy Sanchez. He'll be exposed. And the LaRoche kid is nice too.

NL West - San Diego Padres
Here's another free for all. Coming into the spring, I liked the Dodgers best. But throughout the spring I've been impressed by the raw talent the Diamondbacks have. And the Padres are the two-time defending division champs and they're better this year than last year. Even the Rockies are better.

I'll stick with the Padres. They addressed some of their offensive issues by acquiring Kouzmanoff and Giles offsets Barfield. Plus they added Maddux and Wells. While neither is anywhere near their prime, they'll excel at Petco. And Peavy has to be better.

Wild Cards
In the NL, the West and Central teams will beat each other up so much that no one will seriously be in the wild card race. The wild card winner will likely be whoever beats up on the Nationals the most. It comes down to the Phillies and Mets. While the Phillies are cursed, I hate the Mets (but like many of their players), so I'll take the Phillies.

The AL is also pretty crazy. All three divisions should be uber-competitive. The Yankees will likely be in it and make a trade or two in July. Someone will rise up in the Central though and a team or two will falter. I'll take the White Sox to put it together and take the wild card.

World Series - Red Sox over Brewers
I really don't know. I like the pick of the Red Sox. I have no clue in the NL. Having the Brewers in the World Series would be fun in one regard: the TV ratings would suck, but what could Bud say? It's his small market team. And I'd like a big market, big dollar vs. small market, small dollar matchup to throw another wrench into the mix for people who say small market teams can't compete.

Ok, now go and bet against everyone I picked.

More Questions

There was a story in yesterday's NY Post by Mike Vaccaro that was pretty interesting. It started off talking about classic baseball questions (i.e. Willie, Mickey, or the Duke?) and went on to talk about the potentially classic questions in today's game.

Since it was in a New York paper, they started with the most obvious: Who would you rather have - David Wright and Jose Reyes of the Mets or Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter of the Yankees?

From there they focused on the NL East with Wright and Reyes or Ryan Howard and Chase Utley of the Phillies. In the article they said that foursome could represent the NL in the All-Star game for many years to come. That may well be the case, but it could be due to the fact that those guys are from the larger media markets.

One could just as easily throw the Marlins duo of Miguel Cabrera and Hanley Ramirez into the left-side-of-the-infield debate mix. Given the choice between Wright and Reyes, or Rodriguez and Jeter, or Cabrera and Ramirez, you really couldn't go wrong.

Another NL East pairing to throw into the mix would be the Nats Ryan Zimmerman and... oh... well... nevermind. Do the Nats even have a SS prospect?

Tough Questions

Ok, let's be honest here for a moment. Take salary/budget out of the picture. Forget about fantasy baseball. If you were starting a team and could have any third baseman you wanted (maybe it's for an Olympics/World Baseball Classic type of event), which player would you pick. Say you're looking to have this guy for this year and for the next five years.

The candidates, at least in my mind, probably are: Eric Chavez, Scott Rolen, Miguel Cabrera, David Wright, Alex Rodriguez, Alex Gordon, Ryan Zimmerman, Joe Crede, and Brandon Inge. There are definitely some other prospects and major leaguers out there to consider. But I think that's the A-list.

So who do you pick?

Chavez and Rolen have had off years and/or injuries. They've both probably peaked and their better days are behind them.

Crede and Inge are fun to watch, but don't have the upside of others on this list. They're definitely not the types you would build around.

Cabrera, Wright, Gordon, and Zimmerman are all either stars or will be stars very shortly. I think they each have holes in their game though. They're all pretty small and are really defense and/or speed. You can work around all of those things when you get the bats you get with these guys.

But I think the guy I would have to take -- and it really pains me to say this -- is ARod. He had a down year last year with 30+ homers and well over 100 RBI. Everyone talks about what a great year Jeter had (and don't get me started there), but ARod, in a "down" year scored about as many runs as Jeter and drove in more. Bad Arod is better than good/great just about anyone else.

The knock on ARod is what he does in the "clutch" and what he's done in the post-season. I think ARod is close to "getting" it though. Barry Bonds used to struggle in the playoffs. But he owned the 2002 post-season (I think the homer he hit off Percival is still in orbit). ARod seems like the type who will come around later in his career.

Maybe I'm just going soft on ARod. The talk of him being traded to the White Sox (or just about anywhere else in the league) doesn't seem to go away. Maybe I'm just preparing myself for the inevitable.

Regardless, I hope Wiggins ends up with ARod on his fantasy team.

News of the Day

I'm not sure which of these stories I like better:

1 - Man tries to cash check from God

2 - A police dog was called into court because a judge wanted to know about the college degree he allegedly earned. The real kicker (this shocked me) is that the degree is not from Florida State.

Three Things Wiggins Thinks

Here are things that I know, with absolute certainty, that Wiggins thinks:

1. That ARod will be the MVP of 2007. Not just the AL MVP. And not just the All Star game MVP. He'll be the MVP of everything that is 2007 in baseball. He will win the ALCS MVP. He will win the World Series MVP. He'll win the MVP Award for his play when the team of American all-stars visits Japan in the offseason. Wiggins even thinks there's a chance that ARod will win the NLCS MVP because of the influence he will have on the psyche of the NL players who will fear facing him in the World Series.

2. Hanley Ramirez will hit .237 and manage a statistically inefficient stolen base to caught stealing ratio.

3. Wiggins thinks "comedian" Andy Dick will find his inner heterosexual and spawn a child. She will be named Anita. Wiggins will try not to laugh about this for 18 years. He will fail.

We Almost Missed a Month

January has nearly come and gone and we have posted nothing. I suppose part of that is due to a post-holiday lag, but most of it is because 1) there's no baseball at the moment (although, we have to figure out how to get radio/television of the Caribbean Series. Seriously) and 2) Wiggins and I are both whipped. Initially I thought that was kind of sad, but I'm warming up to it and now I recognize that it's kind of cool.

Sadly, the cool little links I put up the last time I posted here seem to have gone offline and they're no longer available. That, much like me, sucks.

That's all I have for now. Hopefully I'll be inspired sometime soon.

Sides

The links and such on the side of the page have gotten a little stale. I am going to take the opportunity today to spruce them up a little bit.

Maybe It's Not So Crazy

Ok, so the 5-year/$70 million contract for JD Drew still seems insane to me. Props to him for opting out of the 3-year/$33 million the Dodgers owed him. He's a lot richer for that decision.

But the deal seems a lot more sane when you consider the 6-year/$100 million contract that Carlos Lee received from the Astros.

I know this isn't how the contract will be paid, but pretend that Lee gets paid like JD Drew for the first 5 years. That means the 6th year -- when Lee will be more qualified to play d-line for the Texans than outfield for the Astros -- is effectively worth $30 million. That's insane.

And don't even get me started on the Gil Meche contract. Wow.

Science Fair

1 - What did we do before YouTube? Seriously, I don't know how we existed.
2 - I want to help a kid with a science fair experiment this year.

Long Lost Brothers

I always knew that Wiggins and I had long lost brothers (from other mothers):

Is This Kid Possessed?

I Have To See This Movie

Yeah, it's been like a month since I've posted. I know, I know: It's pathetic. I mean, I'm approaching Wiggins territory here. But I have a clip that will redeem me. Just watch it all the way through to the end. Note the bottle of vodka that Matt Lauer takes and the high five he gives to the last question he receives:

Oh man, I can't embed it for some reason: Borat on Today

Apparently my mad blogging skills are diminishing. Sad.

Picking for Perfection

Since I did so well with the (so-called, but I'm not sure why -- since you can't play anyone from your division) Division Series, I am going to forecast the outcome of the League Championship Series in both the NL and the AL:

National League: Cardinals over Mets
American League: Tigers over A's

Congratulations to the Mets and Athletics!

Joe Girardi Day

So it seems that Joe Girardi will likely be fired within the next hour or so. Fine. Whatever. He did well enough. But he wasn't the best in game manager of all time (although, who is in their first year?). He seemed to do well managing a clubhouse full of personalities (ranging from minor leaguers to established stars -- even if they were all practically under 25).

But at this time last year, Girardi didn't seem to make the most sense to outsiders. Other candidates made more sense. Now it seems they're hiring one of those types -- as the rumors have Fredi Gonzalez getting the job. Fredi has a great resume and, since he is bilingual, will likely relate well to players who speak English and Spanish.

The question of the day though, for both Samson and Loria (Beinfest too if he's part of the hiring) is: what will you do differently in hiring a manager this year that you did not do next year? Clearly there was a flaw in the hiring process used last year. They hired a manager who came in and delivered results that were above expectations. Something was missed in the interview and background checking process that allowed the Marlins to hire a manager that they clearly do not want. Can they admit that mistake?

Also, if Gonzalez is hired as early as this afternoon, as has been reported, will MLB investigate the Marlins hiring practices (again)? Or do the Fish get a pass since they're reportedly hiring a Hispanic manager? Maybe it's ok to only talk to one candidate and to handle the whole process while the job is technically already filled if you hire a minority. I applaud the point of the process that MLB has put together, but the point should be to consider the best candidates. Not to just pick a name out of a hat and go after the one person that you target, as the Marlins are seemingly wont to do.

Playoff Predictions

I haven't yet mustered the courage to go back and look at our playoff team predictions, even the most recent ones. I will soon. But for now I'm just going to make some picks. Here are the LDS matchups:

AL
Tigers vs. Yankees
Twins vs. Athletics

NL
Cardinals vs. Padres
Dodgers vs. Mets

Predictions
The Yankees will dispatch of the Tigers fairly easily. The Tigers have been a great story of late, but they've faded.

In the other AL series, the Twins will top the A's. Despite not having Liriano, the Twins finished strong.

The Padres will get even for last year and knock out the Cardinals. And I'm going to hope the Mets fall to the Dodgers.

Early LCS Predictions
Yankees over Twins -- I hope I'm wrong
Dodgers over Padres -- I'll admit it, I just want to hear Vin Scully call a World Series. I know I can get it on tape, but hearing it "live" would be cool.

World Series
Dodgers over Yankees -- How cool would it be to have a Mets-Dodgers and Yankees - Dodgers series in the same post-season?

Scoring the Picks

I am embarrassed to report the following:

In our last set of college picks (straight up, mind you), Wiggins went a pathetic 4-6. Shockingly, Mike did worse -- going 3-7.

We did slightly better in the NFL last week. Both of us went 9-7.

This week, Wiggins came strong with his NFL pciks. He has gone 10-3, with the Reggie Bush show still pending. Mike has only managed an 8-5 record. Sad.

NCAA Week Four/NFL Week Three Picks

No NCAA this week. We're both too depressed about our teams. Besides, the schedules sucks. Here's the NFL slate:

Washington at Houston
NY Jets at Buffalo
Green Bay at Detroit
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Chicago at Minnesota
Tennessee at Miami
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Carolina at Tampa Bay
Baltimore at Cleveland
NY Giants at Seattle
St. Louis at Arizona
Philadelphia at San Francisco
Denver at New England
Atlanta at New Orleans

Wiggins' "Winners"
Washington (C'mon! Jeez...)
Jets
Green Bay
Jacksonville
Chicago
Miami
Cincy
Carolina
Baltimore
Seattle
Arizona
Philly
New England
Atlanta


Mike's Most Excellent Picks
Houston - Even Coach Janky Spanky isn't enough to right the 'Skins
Bills
Lions
Jags
Bears
Titans
Benglas
Panthers
Ravens
Seahawks
Cardinals
Eagles
Patriots
Saints - Brees channels Bobby Hebert

I picked way too many road teams this week

NCAA Week Three/NFL Week Two Picks

Same thing as before. Here are the college games in play:

Michigan at Notre Dame
Miami at Louisville
LSU at Auburn
FAU at Oklahoma State
Nebraska at USC
Oklahoma at Oregon
Texas Tech at TCU
Clemson at FSU
Florida at Tennessee
Maryland at WVU

Wiggins' picks
Michigan (I hope)
Louisville
Auburn
FAU
Nebraska
Oklahona
TCU
FSU
Tennessee
Maryland

NFL
Miami
Atlanta
Baltimore
Philly
New Orleans
Indy
Chicago
Cincy
Carolina
St. Louis
Arizona
New England
Denver
Whale's Vagina
Washington
Jacksonville

Mike's picks
Meatchicken
Miami
Auburn
FAU
Nebraska
Oklahoma
TTech
Clemson
Tennessee
Maryland

NFL
Bucs
Panthers
Dolphins
Giants
Saints
Colts
Bears
Bengals
Ravens
Cardinals
Rams
Chargers
Patriots
Chiefs
Redskins
Jaguars

Opening Night!

Da da da da...

da da da daaah...

doh doh doh doh...

Tonight is opening night. The rest of your fall in winter is officially booked. Here's the only link you'll need: Are you ready for some foosball?

That's right. I said it.

Mike's Meaningless Predictions

Too bad I don't know a word for "prediction" that starts with the letter M. Oh well... Here are my NFL picks:

NFC EAST - Redskins
WEST - Seahawks
SOUTH - Panthers
NORTH - Bears
WC - Cardinals, Giants

AFC EAST - Patriots
WEST - Chargers
SOUTH - Colts
NORTH - Bengals
WC - Steelers, Broncos

Super Bowl XLI: Bears over Colts

By the way, did you see that the Gators issued t-shirts to students to wear to football games this year? They use roman numerals for the year... except they screwed up. Instead of MMVI the shirts had XXVI on the front. After distributing many of them, the Mensas in Gainesville figured it out.

NCAA Week Two/NFL Week One Picks

After "successful" 5-5 weeks last week (for both of us), Wiggins and I are back to make picks for this weekend. We're looking at 10 NCAA games and all NFL games. Here are the college games:

Oregon State (+8) at Boise State (Thur)
Va Tech (-11.5) at UNC
Ohio State (+2.5) at Texas
Pitt (-8.5) at Cinci (Fri)
Colorado State (+2.5) at Colorado
PSU (+8) at ND
FAU (+22.5) at KSU
Georgia at South Carolina (+3)
Clemson at BC (+2.5)
Indiana at Ball St. (+4.5)

And here are our picks (college games are against the spread, NFL games are straight up):

Wiggins' picks
Oregon State (Go Beavers!)
VT
Texas (big)
Pitt
Colorado State
PSU
FAU
Georgia
Clemson
Testic Tech

NFL
Miami
Seattle
Philly
Tennessee
Cleveland
Denver
Cincy
New England
Baltimore
Carolina
Chicago
Arizona
Jacksonville
Indy
Washington
San Diego

Mike's picks
Boise State
Va Tech
Texas
Cinci
Colorado State
PSU
FAU
Georgia
Clemson
Ball St.
Dolphins
Jets
Broncos
Patriots
Bucs
Bengals
Seahawks
Panthers
Eagles
Browns
Jags
Bears
Cardinals
Skins
Chargers

The Morning After

So I'm back from the game and I've even had a couple hours worth of sleep. From my perspective at least, it still feels like I just woke up from a bad dream. But on the other hand, I've realized that I don't care as much anymore. I didn't tailgate yesterday... for like the first time ever. And I'm not that wrapped up in the outcome of the game. It is disappointing to see how much Miami has fallen off from just a few years ago. It's not back to probation era levels, but it's the lowest level the Canes have been at without sanctions in my lifetime. Sad, but true.

Anyway, some thoughts about the game:

• Early on, I thought FSU would end up regretting only getting 3 points on their first two possessions. They had great field position both times.
• After Meriweather's interception in the second quarter, I thought the Canes were going to put the game away. Miami should have gone into the half up 17-3 or 24-3.
• The other thing that made me think the Noles were done was that the defense walked around between snaps and most guys had their hands on their hips. They seemed winded and it was only the first half. FSU's offense showed the same lack of concern in getting to the huddle and the line. In 2000, 2002, and 2004 I'm convinced the Canes won because of better conditioning. I still think Miami is in better shape than FSU but it didn't matter last night. Time will tell if it catches up to FSU.
• Looking back at it now though, Miami was really just a mental lapse by Buster Davis away from going into the half at 3-3. Davis made some great plays last night, but taking off his helmet almost cost the Noles the game.
• At least that's what I think happened. Watching a big game like this at the OB is a pain. There were a bunch of calls and penalties that we couldn't discern. The speaker system is horrible and there are no replays. Why were there those two non-plays at the end of the third quarter when the Noles were on the 1? We couldn't tell.
• I'm not sure who the Nole was who went down for a while on the last kickoff return, but I hope he's ok. He was down for so long that it seemed serious. But he got up on and walked off on his own, so that was good.
• The rain this weekend was relentless. It really poured at times. In person though, it seemed like the field held up well. I was surprised, as it rained hard on Monday afternoon and reasonably hard at times throughout the game. Most of the excitement in the stands revolved around taking on and putting off your poncho. Fun.
• I was glad that Antone Smith didn't do anything signficant. I cheered against him the whole game.
• I was surprised that we didn't see Myron Rolle. I've heard so much about him that I figured he'd see some action. Maybe he did but I missed him. Or maybe I just expect freshman to play since it seems that's all Miami has.
• I fear I was right about Kyle Wright. I think he's a blend of Jeff George and Dan Marino. He's George in the sense that he has all the physical "skills" in the world. He's a practice all-american by all accounts. But when the lights are on, he doesn't show up. I know the line was atrocious and there were lots of other issues. But it's how Wright carries himself that bothers me. He sulks on the sidelines and usually stays away from his teammates (Dorsey and Berlin used to rally the troops in games like last night's). The big skill that Wright hasn't shown yet is leadership. I'll be convinced until he proves otherwise that he doesn't have it. That's where the Marino comparison comes in. Like Marino, Wright has never won a big game. Wright also is Marino-esque in his tendency to tell teammates what they did wrong and to berate them. This strategy doesn't seem to work.
• Miami fans are convinced that Wright has more "tools" than Weatherford, but who really cares? Who was the last Canes or Noles QB to lose to the other team twice in his career and then amount to any level of significance? I can't recall any. Wright now is 0-2 vs. the Noles and Weatherford is 2-0 against the Canes. Drew has heart and eludes the rush and picks up blitzes before the snap. Wright, despite his alleged speed, does neither.
• It feels like the script has flipped in this series. In 2000, 2002, and 2004 Miami trailed and looked out of it early (missing all sorts of opportunities) but eventually came back. The Canes have lost the ability to make those comebacks (or so it seems -- based on their 0 total points in their last four losses, which includes three of the past four games). And it appears that comeback ability has switched to the Noles.
• FSU's game deciding field goal came a little early, but it has to feel like a little bit of redemption for FSU kickers past and present. There were 8 minutes left, but it was the 4th quarter. I don't remember now, but it was probably raining and the kick was into the closed (West) endzone, where it's always louder and tougher to make any sort of a play late in the game.
• Miami fans like to make a derogatory chop and related chant when the FSU faithful and band are doing their thing. While that's fun at the stadium, I'm sure it makes it look like the whole stadium is doing the chop to those watching on TV. Bummer.

Gameday

Ok, so I'm posting this a little early... but I might not be online much today (game day).

Here's hoping we have a good, clean game tonight and that there aren't any injuries like what happened to Michael Bush in the Louisville game. But I still hope we see a lot of this:

Labor Day Picks

It's almost Labor Day and I have decided to humiliate myself once again by attempting to predict baseball's playoff teams. I've done this twice already (during the season) and my picks have been horribly off the mark. So I'm trying again. And I'm sure I'll still be wrong, even though there's only a month left in the season.

Here we go...

American League
East - New York Yankees
Central - Chicago White Sox
West - Oakland A's
Wild Card - Minnesota Twins

That's right, I'm calling for a collapse of the Tigers. There it is; I said it. And yes, I'm probably being a homer. If someone's going to usurp the Tigers, it's more likely to be the Twins, especially if Liriano is close to coming back. But I'm still going with the Sox.

If the Tigers and Twins make up the Central champ and the Wild Card, the playoffs shape up great. That gives you three David's and one Goliath (Yankees) in the playoffs. George will hate to lose to any of those clubs -- possibly as much as the Red Sox -- if only because those three clubs are doing more with less.

National League
East - New York Mets
Central - St. Louis Cardinals
West - Los Angeles Dodgers
Wild Card - San Francisco Giants

The Mets are in. They're locks. But I don't think they'll reach the World Series. They've been on coast for too long and they have holes.

Everyone in the Central is weaker than the Cardinals. That will start to show in the next few weeks. Eventually the Cards are going to have to start beating up on their weaker sisters.

The West is a mess. But I think the Dodgers will hold on. I also think that the Giants will get hot, because they'll be carried by Barry. He's been hot the past few weeks and I think that will continue through September. The Phillies are a fun story, but they're just too flawed. And no matter what, I'm not buying into the Reds until I have to. If I didn't take the Giants, I'd probably take the Astros for the Wild Card. Maybe the D-backs after that.

Whatever happens, the West and the Wild Card (in both leagues) are going to be a lot of fun.

Quarterbacks

As the game draws near, I will divulge my one fear: Kyle Wright may not be in the mold of Ken Dorsey (or even Brock Berlin) and Drew Weatherford may not be the second coming of Chris Rix.

Weatherford had a nice year last season, but I'm still not sold on him. We'll see how he manages on Monday night. The Noles didn't win last year because of Weatherford.

Now, the Canes didn't lose last year because of Wright. But they didn't win last year because of him either. I don't think that Dorsey or Berlin would have found themselves on the losing end of last year's game. Whether it was the Dorsey led comeback in 2000 or 2002 against the Noles, or Berlin's comebacks against the Gators in 2003 or his leadership against the Noles in the rain in 2003, both guys proved that they were winners and could be counted on in close games. Both guys graduated with undefeated records against FSU and UF. Kyle Wright already has a blemished record against the Noles and hasn't shown yet that he can lead a team like his predecessors. Yes, the bar has been set high, but that's life.

Regardless, I'm still optimistic. I hope to see a lot of this on Monday night:

Just a few more days

Yeah, I'm too lazy to count the days until game day. Anyway, I'm not sure, but I believe this is Triumph the Insult Comic. He says that Florida State is a great school...



... for him to poop on.

One Week Until Order Is Restored To The Universe

One week from today the big game will be played... or so we hope. Now that the date is nearly upon us, it dawns on me that the order I'm predicting to be restored to the universe may simply be the return of hurricane (meteorlogical) season and a lack of electricity. I'm hoping that's not the case and we see the return of Hurricanes (football variety) as a dominant force.

Anyway, here's a fun video:



And yes, I know what happened last year after Irvin gave his pre-game speech. But I can't help but laugh when I hear that speech, because it makes me think of the Fake Howard speech they run on the radio all the time. Sometimes I think I could be that blogger that Howard Schnellenberger (fake) refers to.

Two Weeks Until Order Is Restored To The Universe

This is what an ordered universe looks like:

Argh, I give up. For whatever reason I can't embed the video today.

Next week's video is going to be great. GREAT.

Random Things

A few random thoughts

• I still have no idea what to make of the White Sox. They're about to wrap up a series with the Royals, and the Sox have dropped two of the first three. This is on the heels of sweeping the Tigers. So they've gone from winning three of three from the best team in the game to losing two of three to the worst team in the AL. There are six weeks left in the season and we still don't know who the real White Sox are.
• Two Hall of Fame candidates that we missed before: Jeff Kent and George Steinbrenner. While those two guys aren't connected to each other in any way, they are similar in the sense that neither is the happiest person that you'll ever meet (to say the least). Both are... cantankerous. But both have a shot at the Hall, I think. Kent is one of the best offensive second baseman of all time. Steinbrenner has done remarkable things as an owner and is responsible for reviving the great Yankees franchise. I also think that history will remember him well. We tend to remember the firings and the wild quotes The Boss issues, but down the road I think we will become more and more aware of his extensive charity work and all the good things he does for people. That, plus the New York media, will one day take him to Cooperstown.
• Just a few years ago, Willie Williams was the biggest recruit in the nation. He wrote a diary for a major newspaper that was so widely publicized and described the recruiting process so outlandishly that it caused the NCAA to make numerous changes to recuiting rules. Ultimately Williams settled on the University of Miami. Then his long, juvenile criminal history came to light. Miami admitted him anyway. There were all sorts of stipulations attached. Two years into things, Williams hadn't earned a starting role and now he wants out. He couldn't find a four year college to take him. And now community colleges are turning him down. How can a guy with two years at a 4-yr school even get into a 2-yr school? If he's really the student we all thought he was, shouldn't he have too many credits? Oh well. He's gone. I hope the kid can get his life figured out.

Three Weeks Until Order Is Restored To The Universe

Recent years have been relatively lean for the Florida State Seminoles. In 1999, the Noles went undefeated and won the national title. In 2000, they went 11-2. Since then, it's been a little rough. Overall records have looked like this in the year's since: 8-4, 9-5, 10-3, 9-3, and 8-5.

While last year's 8-5 mark was disappointing, there were two notable bright spots for the Noles. First, they won a game for the first time in six tries against Miami. That allowed last year's senior class to graduate with at least one career against the Canes -- unlike the class of 2004. Second, an off field star emerged for the Noles during that same game.

Unfortunately for Seminole fans, Ms. Sterger seems to be as full of herself and as dimwitted as she is surgically enhanced. Sadly, she speaks better of Florida State than just about anything else they have going at the moment.

Wiggins Goes on You Tube

I knew it was only a matter of time until our friend Wiggins expanded his multi-media talents into the world of video. When I stumbled onto this the other day, I was simply amazed:

Four Weeks Until Order Is Restored To The Universe

I hate myself for even linking to this, but don't ever say that I never did anything for you: last year's in-stadium intro video.

Ok, I feel dirty now. But here's a clip to make me feel better:



That's Javarris James -- Baby Edge.

Dog Days Of August Predictions

Ok, I'm revising my playoff predictions. That's mostly because the ones I put up barely two weeks ago were just horrible.

In July I had:

AL:
East - Red Sox
Central - Tigers
West - Angels
Wild Card - White Sox

NL:
East - Mets
Central - Cardinals
West - Dodgers
Wild Card - Astros

Now I'm changing my picks. In the AL East, I know that David Ortiz comes through at every opportunity, but the Yankees are hot, they added some serious talent, and they're going to get All-Stars back from the DL the rest of the way. The Tigers have the Central locked up, essentially. The West is a mess, but I still like the Angels. I have no idea what to think about the Wild Card. But the Twins are hot right now. And if the Twins make the playoffs, they almost have to be the favorite to win the pennant. With Santana and Liriano heading the rotation, it's tough pick against the Twins.

New AL:
East - Yankees
Central - Tigers
West - Angels
Wild Card - Twins

The NL is a little easier in some respects. The Mets have pretty much locked up the East. I can't see anyone mounting a challenge, particularly with the Phillies having given up on this season. The Central is tougher. It's hard to think the Cardinals will win the division. They hardly deserve it... except that everyone else in the division is horrible. And I guess I'm coming around to thinking that the much maligned West is going to produce the Wild Card.

New NL:
East - Mets
Central - Cardinals
West - D'backs
Wild Card - Padres

I'm giving the D'backs the edge in the West because they currently have a winning record in the division. I think everyone in the West is still in the race though.

I'll revise my picks in September (pre-Labor Day). I have a feeling they'll need some heavy re-working.

Five Weeks Until Order Is Restored To The Universe

I think this story pretty much sums it all up. I'd give a link, but I don't have one. I received this via email. I would have to assume it's from The Onion:

You Will Suffer Humiliation When The Sports Team From My Area Defeats The Sports Team From Your Area
As you can see from the calendar, the game is coming up next weekend (ok - five weeks from now). I'm sure you are as excited for it as I am, as our cities are rivals and have been for quite some time. Your confidence in your team is high, but rest assured, you will suffer humiliation when the sports team from my area defeats the sports team from your area.

On numerous occasions, you have expressed the conviction that your area's sports team will be victorious. I must admit that every time I hear you make this proclamation, I react with both laughter and disbelief. "Ha!" I say to myself with laughter. "What?!" I say to myself in disbelief. How could you believe that your sports team could beat my sports team? It is clear that yours is inferior in every way.

When the sporting contest begins, the players on your team will be treated as though they are inconsequential. It will be remarkably easy for my team to accumulate more points than yours. There are many reasons for this, starting with the inferior physical attributes of the players representing your area. Strength, speed, and agility are just three of the qualities that the players on the team from your area lack. The players representing my area, on the other hand, have these traits in abundance.

I would not be a bit surprised if the individuals on the team from your area were sexually attracted to members of their own gender. That is how ineffective they are on the field of battle.

Underscoring your team's inferiority is its choice of colors. It is ludicrous to believe that your team's colors inspire either respect or fear. Instead, they appear to have been chosen by someone who is colorblind or, perhaps, bereft of sight altogether. The colors for my team, on the other hand, are aesthetically pleasing when placed in proximity to one another. They are a superior color combination in every way.

While we are on the subject of aesthetics, let us compare the respective facilities in which our teams play. While my team's edifice is blessed with architectural splendor and the most modern of amenities, yours is a thoroughly unpleasant place in which to watch a sporting contest. I know of what I speak, for I once attended a game between our respective teams in your facility. Let's just say the experience left me wishing that my car was inoperable that day due to mechanical problems, rendering it impossible for me to get to your area to attend the game.

If you need another reason why the sporting franchise representing my area is superior, look no further than the supporters for the two sides. Not only are the supporters of the team from my region more spirited, but they are also more intelligent and of finer breeding than you and the rest of your ilk. In addition, the female supporters of the team from my area possess more attractive countenances and figures than yours. Some of the women from my side that I have observed could make a living by posing for pictures for major men's magazines. The women who cheer for your team, I'm afraid, are far too unattractive to do so.

One of the more pathetic aspects of the team from your area is the fact that only people in your immediate area possess an affinity for it. By means of contrast, the team from my area inspires loyalty and affection in individuals who live in many other geographic locations.

To illustrate this point, let me tell a brief story: Recently, I was on vacation in an area of the country far away from my own, and I saw many individuals wearing items of clothing that bore the insignia of my team. I approached one such individual and asked him if he originated from my area. He said no, explaining that he simply liked the team from my area and had for many years. Interestingly enough, during this trip, I saw no clothing or other paraphernalia bearing the insignia of your team.

Do you still doubt that the team from your area is inferior to the one from mine? Just look at our teams respective histories. In the past, we have defeated you on any number of occasions. Granted, there were times when your team beat my team, but those were lucky flukes.

The day of the game will soon be at hand. And no matter how hard you pray to a higher power or how many foam accoutrements you wear in support of the team from your area, your team will be defeated. We will win and you will lose. This is your fate.

Prepare for humiliation. It shall be upon you at the designated hour.

Another reason why I hate David Samson

David Samson still does his weekly radio segment on Dan LeBatard's radio show. Samson is mildly entertaining in this bit because he talks very little baseball. In my opinion, this is a smart thing for Samson to do, because he doesn't know much about baseball.

After droning on about his upcoming Ironman competition (seriously), Samson proved (once again) that he's not as savvy of a baseball person as he pretends to be. Samson uses most of his radio time to talk about movies. He's apparently a movie fanatic. Somehow he's able (he says) to watch a movie each day. I'm not sure how he finds the time, particularly when you consider the amount of time the average baseball exec claims to spend working and/or watching baseball. But apparently David finds the time -- even during the season.

Anyway, last week's movie discussion led to a brief back and forth about "Miami Vice". This talk was a day or two before the movie was released, so neither LeBatard nor Samson had actually seen the movie. Samson said that he was very excited about it, because he had given the filmmakers permission to use the Marlins' name and/or logos in the movie. Mr. Samson informed everyone that when the Marlins are referenced on a television show or in a movie, the team has to give its permission -- and that normally goes through Samson's office.

What struck me as odd though was that immediately after relating that he gave permission for the Marlins reference in "Miami Vice", Samson expressed surprise when LeBatard informed him that the movie (unlike the television show) is not set in the 1980s. "Miami Vice" (the new, movie version, at least) takes place in 2005/2006.

Now, if David Samson is so smart, how did he not realize that it would be extremely difficult for a 1980s-based movie to have a Florida Marlins reference? Part of me genuinely thinks that Mr. Samson may not know that the Marlins weren't a part of MLB during the 80s. I'm sure he knows that when he has a media guide or some other publication in front of him. But between the movie watching and the snack eating at the ballpark, I'm sure that some of this other minutia escapes him.

Beating My Coke Problem

Last week, July 16th to be exact was the first anniversary of the last caffeniated soda that I have ever had. For those of you who have known me for a long time, you know that I have always been a big Coke fan. Growing up, I nearly always had a Coca-Cola in my hand. Not a Pepsi, but a Coke. From time to time I'd have a Mountain Dew, Jolt, or Dr. Pepper, but 99 times out of 100 it was a Coke.

As I got a little older (a few years out of college) that switched to Diet Coke. The switch saved me at least 600 calories a day. On a lot of days, it was probably closer to 1,000 calories. The taste wasn't the same, but I needed the caffeine. Really, I did. If I was somehow able to get through the morning without a soda, I'd have headaches and/or feel ill by about noon.

But last year around this time, with Carolina's urging, I stopped cold turkey. I thought it would be hard, but it wasn't. I started drinking copious amounts of water. That made it much easier. Eventually I mixed in green tea. That has helped considerably.

Now I'll be honest and admit that from time to time I have a cup of coffee, or a Frappuccino, or even a caffeine free soda. But it's not the same. I can have one of those once in awhile and leave it at that. Back in the day, one soda led to another and another. I couldn't have a meal -- even breakfast -- without a soda. Now I can. It's much better this way.

Six Weeks Until Order Is Restored to the Universe

Kenny Phillips is better than Sean Taylor. Do you remember Sean Taylor?

My Ins and Outs

Now we've got something of a list going. Maybe we'll add some names as we think of others (and keep using the comments to add names). In this post I'm going to list who I think is in and who I think is out. There will not be any "I'm not sure" type things associated with any name.

Maybe what we can do is that when Wiggins has his list up we can talk about the guys we disagree about. Maybe that will be interesting.

Guys who are in
Greg Maddux
Roger Clemens
Mike Piazza
Alex Rodriguez -- if he retires today, he's in -- unclutch and all
Derek Jeter -- same as ARod, but with clutch
Randy Johnson
Pedro Martinez
Ivan Rodriguez
Tom Glavine
Robbie Alomar
Craig Biggio
Mariano Rivera
Manny Ramirez
Barry Bonds
Frank Thomas
Jeff Bagwell
John Smoltz
Curt Schilling -- as much as I hate to admit it
Trevor Hoffman
Ichiro Suzuki -- with a couple more good years in the States, his MLB accomplishments alone may be enough to merit enshrinement. He needs 10 years in the bigs to be eligible
Andruw Jones -- he's still young
Chipper Jones
Jim Thome -- when it's all said and done, the numbers will be huge
Mike Mussina -- he'll end up North of 250 wins, but short of 300. Another ring with the Yankees helps his cause
Vladimir Guerrerro
Johan Santana -- he's in the middle of the dominant period of his career
Albert Pujols
Scott Kazmir -- wild guess
Joe Torre
Bobby Cox
Tony LaRussa

Guys who will get in, but who will have to wait awhile
Mark McGwire
Sammy Sosa
Edgar Martinez -- for different reasons than the first two

Not going to make it
Rafael Palmeiro -- I didn't think he was in before the steroid controversy
Jason Giambi
Gary Sheffield
Fred McGriff -- if Palmeiro's not in, how can McGriff?
Carlos Delgado -- I love the guy, but... maybe if he gets a ring with the Mets and has another deep run or two
Jason Varitek -- needs more playoff drama and/or more rings because the stats won't be there
Bernie Williams -- lots of intangibles and team things, but not enough stats
Miguel Cabrera -- intangibles worry me. My gut tells me he won't keep it up
Dontrelle Willis -- I love the guy. He can be great and not make the Hall. No shame in that
Roy Oswalt
Barry Zito
Tim Hudson
Roy Halladay
Rich Harden
Felix Hernandez
Francisco Liriano -- the body of work is too small
Jason Bay -- debuted too old
Carlos Beltran
Alfonso Soriano
David Ortiz -- his Twins years still count
John Scheurholz -- he should be in, but won't make it
Billy Beane -- he's going to need a lot of rings
David Wright -- he'll get in one day. I'm almost sure of it. He'll be in just like Gregg Jeffries -- when he pays his admission just like you and me

Hall of Fame Debate

Wiggins and I will now answer all of your questions, doubts, and worries about who will and who will not one day be enshrined in baseball's Hall of Fame. We're going to focus on current players and recently retired (but not yet eligible) ballplayers. We'll break them into categories and discuss from there. Once the list is "complete" (whatever that means) we'll really start to get into it.

Locks
Roger Clemens
Greg Maddux

Near Certainties
Mike Piazza
Alex Rodriguez
Derek Jeter
Randy Johnson
Pedro Martinez
Ivan Rodriguez
Tom Glavine - 4 silver sluggers -- that's cool
Robbie Alomar
Craig Biggio
Mariano Rivera
Manny Ramirez

Steroid Talk
Barry Bonds
Mark McGwire
Sammy Sosa
Rafael Palmeiro
Jason Giambi
Gary Sheffield

Questionable/Stretches
Frank Thomas
Jeff Bagwell
John Smoltz
Fred McGriff
Carlos Delgado
Curt Schilling - his middle name is "Montague". I hate him.
Jason Varitek
Bernie Williams - 5x All-Star, 4x Gold Gloves, 4 rings
Trevor Hoffman - 436 saves, 146 ERA+
Ichiro Suzuki
Andruw Jones
Chipper Jones
Jim Thome
Edgar Martinez
Mike Mussina - 224 W, 125 ERA+

Need More Quality Seasons
Vlad Guerrerro
Johan Santana
Albert Pujols
Miguel Cabrera
Dontrelle Willis
Roy Oswalt
Barry Zito
Tim Hudson
Roy Halladay
Scott Kazmir
Rich Harden
Felix Hernandez
Francisco Liriano
Jason Bay
Carlos Beltran
Alfonso Soriano
David Ortiz
David Wright

Managers/Executives
Joe Torre
Bobby Cox
John Scheurholz
Tony LaRussa
Billy Beane

I suppose we could get into the uber-prospects too, but that's a little much. Even the younger pitchers listed there are a big stretch, but some out of that group are inevitably going to turn into immortals.

Some of these guys shouldn't even be listed -- but I was just trying to put together more of a list so that there'd be more to discuss. Feel free to add/subtract.

Mike's Fearless Postseason Predictions

Yes, it's mid-July, but I still don't have a handle on who is going to make the MLB playoffs. Here are my picks. After this week's White Sox - Tigers series, I may have a completely different take on everything.

American League
East - Boston Red Sox
Central - Detroit Tigers
West - Los Angeles Angels
Wild Card - Chicago White Sox

I had written off the Yankees going into the weekend. That's a lot different now. Toronto is right there too. The other teams in the Central are too far back. Anything could happen in the West.

National League
East - New York Mets
Central - St. Louis Cardinals
West - Los Angeles Dodgers
Wild Card - Houston Astros

The Reds and Brewers are fun, but neither team is outscoring their opponents on the whole. Plus the Reds traded away a lot of talent last week. Maybe Atlanta, Philly, or a team from the West will sneak into the wild card. Who knows?

It's amazing that we're 90+ games into the season and that everyone in each Western division is within 4 games of the lead. That's fun. A sweep here or there could really give some separation.

Regardless of who makes it, I'll take the AL over the NL in the World Series... but in 5 games.

The trade market hasn't started yet, at least not in earnest. Whatever moves are made between now and the end of July (or August) could end up making these picks look horrific.

Hooray Beer -- Now in Multiple Languages

After doing some exhaustive research, we have now translated our page into multiple languages. In addition to reading Hooray, Beer! in the English that Wiggins and I attempt to use, you can now read our site in the following:

Pimp
Smurf
Ozzie Ozbourne style
Redneck (aka some of dem parts of Georgia I be drivin thru from time to time)

I'm not sure which I like best. They're kind of like my children. I love them all in their own special way.

Repicking

Just to recap here, there were eight games in the round of 16. Wiggins correctly predicted the outcome of 7 of those games. I had four of them right (somewhat surprisingly, I had one game each day right and one wrong -- weird).

Now that it's all messed up, we're repicking. Fortunately for me, the four games I got right involved my final four teams. So that's pretty good. I guess that means I don't have much to change (but then again, Wiggins had seven games right, so he has 7 of his original final 8 still in it).

Here we go...

Round of 8
Germany over Argentina -- I suppose this is where it gets ugly for me
Italy over Ukraine -- hopefully I won't get a Ukraine train run... eh, nevermind
England over Portugal -- I hope they both lose
Brazil over France -- Ronaldo showed up in round 2, Brazil may be for real, again

Everything the rest of the way is the same as before.

Halfway Through the Round of 16

So we're halfway through the 2nd round. So far, Wiggins is 3-1 with his picks (and he also had the goal differential right in the England - Ecuador game). Mike is 2-2.

I know that I picked Italy over Australia in today's game, but I have to cheer for the Socceroos. That's one of the best team nicknames left in the tournament.

Also, Wiggins is calling for a 4-0 beatdown by Brazil over Ghana later this week. That's probably a reasonable prediction. I sure hope Ghana keeps it closer than that though. If they lose by a goal, that could be on the bigger stories of the tournament. I mean, I'm hoping for a win by Ghana, but that's not going to happen.

You can pick your friends, you can pick your nose...

... but you can't pick the World Cup better than me. Wiggins is going to attempt to out pick me, but we all know how that will go (even if he does know soccer -- err, football -- better than me).

I don't know much about this, but I'm going to try. I also don't know who all of the teams are yet and I may not get to update my picks once the field is set, so this could get ugly (if I'm way off on who I'm assuming gets into the round of 16, let me know). There's probably too much "chalk" in my pics. In reality, I have no idea what's going to happen, but I'm sure I'm going to enjoy it.

Round of 16
Germany over Sweden
Mexico over Argentina

Italy over Australia
Switzerland over Ukraine/Tunisia

England over Ecuador
Netherlands over Portugal

Brazil over Ghana
Spain over South Korea/France

Round of 8
Germany over Mexico

Italy over Switzerland

England over Netherlands

Brazil over Spain

Semifinals
Germany over Italy

Brazil over England

Finals
Germany over Brazil

Can you get a prescription for ecstasy?

Just when you thought it had all happened and the off-field shenanigans of athletes couldn't be topped, something spectacular happens. This is truly unbelievable.

Doesn't Bobby usually try to tell everyone about what a family it is up there in Tallahassee? If so, apparently families steal from each other.

Some highlights:

• In a sworn, taped interview on May 28, Rouse said Nicholson entered the home and carried out two portable stereos, a DVD player and a pair of headphones.
• Rouse also said Nicholson had sustained a substantial cut on a finger. ... In gaining entry, the suspects appeared to cut themselves as they left blood there and on one of Bookers' roommate's sheets. Police later found drops of blood at the exterior of the home of Nicholson's girlfriend.
• Rouse was arrested and charged with three felonies: burglary of a dwelling, grand theft and unrelated possessions of a controlled substance without a prescription, which was ecstasy.
• Nicholson, who was accused of a sexual assault in Miami and sent home from the Orange Bowl, was selected by the Bengals in the fifth round. Nicholson, who has pleaded no contest to a DUI arrest and had another incident with Tallahassee police that led to dropped charges of resisting arrest, has not been charged in the sexual assault case.

Dan Marino: Juicer?

Who is the most accomplished athlete and suspected steroid user to never win a championship in his sport?

Up until today, the answer to that question was (fairly or unfairly) most likely Barry Bonds. But it now seems like that honor should go to someone else. That's because the honor should probably go to the guy who could never win the big one for the Miami Dolphins -- Dan Marino.

Check it out at SNAC's site. There's Dan, listed amongst the convicted and those convicted by the jury of public opinion, and right in between Jim Courier (gasp?) and Bryce Paup (another blast from the past).

Again, if you're all worked up about Barry Bonds and what he did or didn't do, I hope that you are righteously indignant about Terrell Davis, Ivan Lendl, Michael Chang, and Dan Marino too. And if you think that only the folks listed on SNAC's page are the only users of performance enhancing drugs (PED), you're kidding yourself. Given what they're testing for, my guess is there are more PED users in baseball today than there were two or five years ago.

Another star recruit

I wonder if Fred Rouse was still in school when this kid came for his recruiting visit. Yes, I know it's a different sport. But something tells me these two guys would have gotten along famously.

Where be Wiggins 2.0?

Last week we heard all about the new and improved Wiggins... but WTF is he?

My guesses (from most likely to least likely):

1. New Wiggins restricted Old Wiggins web access.
2. Wiggins will be back and soon. He'll tell us about how he ALMOST DIED en route to making his next post/comment.
3. His World Cup research went really well.
4. His World Cup research didn't happen at all.
5. He's despondent over FSU's baseball tailspin. (But c'mon - haven't I always told you that no one gets a team ready for March better than Mike Martin?)
6. Wiggins met the love of his life... the new guy is really happy with Wiggins.
7. He was "featured" on one of those Dateline/child predator specials.

...

287,652. Wiggins met a woman.

Barry, Barry, Barry

It seems that everyone with a keyboard or a microphone is telling us what we should think about Barry Bonds and how his career stacks up against that of Barry Bonds lately. Some things are left out most of the time, so I thought I'd re-mention them here.

1. - Yes, Ruth out paced his peers by a wider margin than Bonds. By far. Yes, Ruth hit more homers than entire other teams did at some point during his career. Bonds has never come close to accomplishing such a thing. But it's not that simple.

Ruth wasn't also walked as frequently as Barry has been. Granted, intentional walks weren't tracked back in Ruth's day, but that's because they didn't happen frequently enough to be of any interest. That's not the case for Bonds though.

Take 2004 for instance. Barry was intentionally walked 120 times. That doesn't include the unintentional intentional walks (you know, when there's nothing close to the plate). That total alone would be enough to rank Bonds ahead of Gary Sheffield, Larry Walker, Eddie Matthews, Cal Ripken, and Brooks Robinson on the all-time list. But 120 is what Barry racked up in a single season! For his career (entering this season), Barry's 607 intentional walks was far and away the most of all time. In fact, it's more than Hank Aaron and Willie McCovey had combined.

That part of the game has changed, even just from Aaron's day. Opposing managers are afraid to pitch to some hitters. They refuse to challenge them. That didn't used to happen. Back in the day, you went after your opponents. If other teams didn't intentionally walk Barry (and if they actually threw him strikes when the catcher was still squatting), Bonds would have many more home runs.

2. Others have talked about the rule changes since Ruth's day. Ruth likely picked up some homers from what would be ground-rule/automatic doubles today. He also likely lost others because they curved foul after going over the fence. Someone has claimed to have estimated that there were at least 50 of these lost home run balls, but he claims to have done so by recreating the trajectory of Ruth's hits from newspaper accounts. That seems to be pretty speculative. It's a particularly interesting conclusion when the author also concludes that Ruth didn't benefit from the short porches in Yankee Stadium and the Polo Grounds down the right field line. How is it that he had 50+ homers curve foul, but that he didn't have many which went right down the line? Those that curved foul must have been right on the line. It's hard to believe those were the only balls he pulled.

Sure, Barry's playing in smaller parks. But he's facing stronger pitchers. And more pitchers. In all, that leads me to another point. But the real point here is that we're talking clearly different eras. This isn't an apples to apples comparison.

3. Take the bottom third of players off of rosters in Ruth's day and replace them with blacks and foreigners. That's essentially what Bonds is doing. Yes, there's been expansion and yes, Americans play other sports now. But there are more opportunities to develop your skills in America now, as there are around the world.

If Pedro Martinez, Dontrelle Willis, and Armando Benitez weren't on the mound to face Bonds (and they were instead replaced by white hurlers from AA), how many homers would Barry hit? How many would Ruth have hit if he'd faced Pedro's grandfather or Willis's great-grandfather?

We'll never know. But don't simply discount Barry's performance because he didn't dominate his competitors by the same margin that Ruth did. Ruth was competing against a very different set of people.

4. If you don't like Barry or diminish what he has accomplished because you think he did/is doing steroids (HGH or whatever), what about those he's competing against? Sure, we don't have names and the details behind many others. But the facts are that more major and minor league pitchers have tested positive for illegal, performance enhancing substances than position players. Maybe my logic isn't right, but that also makes me think that there are more pitchers who are beating the test (when they should be testing positive) than there are position players doing the same.

I had more points, but I can't remember them right now.

Things I Don't Understand

There are a lot of things that I just don't understand. For instance, in all of this Reggie Bush stuff (free house for his parents, the family getting $100,000 cash, etc, etc), why hasn't anyone asked the one question that I want asked? That questions is, of course, if $100,000, use of a house for free for a year, plus whatever other perks were out there weren't enough to land the rights to be Reggie Bush's marketing person, what did the winning team give Reggie and his family? It must have been quite the package.

Oh well. The world is upside down anyway. Miami baseball sucks. FSU lost to Savannah State over the weekend. The Gators, top ranked in the pre-season, are now looking at not even making the regionals. Craziness everywhere.

I'm going back into my hole now.

Crazy Carl Gets His Ring

Last night I caught a few innings of the Mariners - Indians game. Since it was on XM and the game was in Cleveland, I was treated to the Indians broadcasting crew. At one point they went into a story about Carl Everett receiving his World Series ring on Sunday. They said that, in an on field presentation, Carl was presented his ring by a dinosaur-like mascot.

When I heard that, I thought that was the funniest story I had ever heard. It's funny because Carl Everett doesn't believe that dinosaurs ever existed. If this work was the doing of Sox GM Kenny Williams, then I think Kenny should automatically win the Executive of the Year award, regardless of the Sox performance on the field this season. All I could picture in my head was Dinger (the Rockies mascot) or Barney walking out onto the field at Safeco to hand Crazy Carl his ring.

Unfortunately, it isn't true. Carl (and Joe Borchard) received his ring in a much tamer, clubhouse ceremony.

Opening Week in Review

Baseball season is back! I'm so excited. Some ramblings...

• ESPN's new Thursday night package (I guess Thursday is the new Wednesday) is absolutely brutal. Not only do we get an extra dose of Joe Morgan, but he's teamed up with Chris Berman. Once I realized that was the announcing team, I just turned it off. I didn't it tune in to see if Peter Gammons was doing the sideline reporter thing, or if they'd found some other legit baseball guy to belittle with that role for the broadcast. Did Gammons really volunteer for that work? Does he need the money that badly? Is it some form of punishment?
• Barry Bonds has taken more ugly swings this week than I saw him take in the past five years. I know he had a strong (albeit brief) Spring Training, but he doesn't look like the same guy since the season started. I'm no expert, but it looks like his legs aren't there. I'd be ready to write him off, but at this time last year nearly everyone wrote off Ken Griffey Jr. (including myself, after I watched him in person). Griffey was slow to start, but eventually heated up and won the Comeback Player of the Year award. Maybe Bonds is on track to do the same.
• The Nationals seem to have finally worked out their broadcasting situation. Well, they're at least on the Extra Innings package more than they used to be (with Nats broadcasters -- in the past you always got the Expos/Nats opponents' broadcasters). I really like the team of Bob Carpenter and Tom Patoriek.
• "Bonds on Bonds" was pretty pathetic.
• I'm probably going to be staying up late a lot this year. The AL West is going to be a lot of fun to follow and every Bonds AB could be historic.
• I can't wait to see the Marlins new video board in person. Apparently it's gigantic.
• "The Fielding Bible" is a great read. I'm not a big fan of the format of it. It "looks" just like the THT annual and the Bill James book. They all feel the same. But the content (just like with the other two) of "The Fielding Bible" is great and completely different than anything I've ever read before.
• Too bad Jimmy Rollins' streak ended. If he'd reached 56/57 games, it would have equalled/surpassed Joe D's mark in my book. Do all non-Yankee fans feel that way? Maybe it just seems like it.
• Shea Stadium isn't my all-time favorite ballpark. But it's a nice enough place to see a game. And yes, it will be sad when they knock the old place down. I was sad when the White Sox left Old Comiskey. I'm sure I'll be sad when the Marlins leave whatever-it-is-that-they're-calling-their-stadium. I'll even be a little sad when they get rid of Shea, and any of the other ballparks I've watched a game or two in. At least with Shea we'll always have Suite 36.
• Braves starting pitchers have gotten roughed up early and often this season. Do Bobby Cox's boys miss Leo Mazzone that much? It's too early to say that, especially when Mazzone's Orioles haven't exactly been shutting everyone down.
• I hope the Brewers and Tigers (and Chris Shelton!) play this well all year long.
  

Something New

At one site or another I blogged the past three baseball seasons. But I kind of blogged myself out. Still though, I like this writing on the Internet thing. It makes me feel like I'm following my team(s) a little more closely. But up until the other day, I wasn't sure what I was going to do. Now I think I've found something.

Last year one of the things that drove me crazy with the Marlins, and made me happy with the White Sox, was swing games. Ok, I wasn't calling them swing games at the time, but that's really what they were. The Marlins were in plenty of close games, but they often found themselves on the wrong end of them (for instance, the game early in the year that the Marlins lost in extra innings to the Braves when Juan Pierre bunted into a double play). While the Marlins were losing those sorts of games, the White Sox, inexplicably, went 35-19 in one-run games. The differences in success these two teams had last year led (pretty directly) to the White Sox surprising everyone and winning the World Series while the Marlins disappointed many and finished short of the playoffs.

So this year I'm participating, along with some other folks, in a new site on a new project. It's not entirely objective -- much of it is subjective. But we're going to try to track which games are routine, which are significant wins, and which are significant losses. My guess is that the playoff teams will have large, positive scores. I'm curious about a young team, like the Marlins, who are expected to struggle. Maybe it's just because of last night's game, but I think the Fish could surprise us with a large number of "significant wins".

Check it out - and even sign up to participate if you want - over at Swing Score.

Opening Day Stuff

I caught a little bit of the Nats - Mets game at lunch, but I've mostly been radio only so far. For a lot of the day I've been scrolling around on XM, giving some of my favorite announcers a listen.

• The Dodgers game just started, but Vin Scully is amazing. He still sounds like he always has. And he's still doing it all by himself.
• President Bush through out the first pitch in Cinci. The announcers said he received a warm reception. They also said that the President was going to visit their booth to talk some baseball, but I couldn't stomach enough of a Cubs game (especially after hearing Juan Pierre lead off the game with a triple), so I didn't hear it.
• Bob Eucker is great. I may listen to him more this year if the Brewers are as good as everyone thinks they will be.
• Today worked out just how the Mets want the whole year to go didn't it? I guess Wagner's finger is ok.
• I really like the Phillies announcers. Too bad (for them) that they're getting shelled.
• I only caught a few pitches of the Rangers and Red Sox. How did I let that happen? That should be a good series.
• I miss Joe Angel doing Marlins games.
• The Marlins should open at home each year. Having games in New York this week is brutal. Teams in the North should wait until the second week.
• Why aren't the Twins or Blue Jays playing today? Is it because of the Blue Jays? Is Canada in a different time zone now?
• I am sick: I'm thinking of getting DirecTV's sports package (I have MLB Extra Innings, but not all of the regional sports channels) just so that I can watch Yankees batting practice on YES. Keep in mind, I do not like the Yankees. I just like batting practice. And batting practice on television fascinates me. Yes, I know - I need help.
• Albert Pujols! The game is still in progress, but Al already has two homers and four runs driven in. Here's a tip: if you're in a fantasy league, pick this guy up if he's a free agent/on the waiver wire. He could be good.
• Do the Angels own the record for most team and stadium names for a team playing in the same stadium? I'm not even sure what they call their park now, but it's been renamed at least twice (it wasn't that long ago that it was the Big A) and the California/Anaheim/Los Angeles of Anaheim/Los Angeles has changed plenty too. And all without moving anywhere! Yes, I know they significantly renovated the stadium after the Rams left, but still -- it's the same stadium in the same location.

What's up wtih these opening series matchups? I don't like that the Marlins open against the Astros and then at home with the Padres. The home openers should be against division foes. The Pads aren't going to be back in Florida all year. Sure, some of the matchups are good, like A's - Yankees, but A's - Angels would have been just as good to start the year.

Opening Day Fun

I'm not sure what made me think of this (actually, I guess it was that Rob Schneider special that ESPN showed as part of last night's rain delay theater -- it was fun to watch Ray Durham try to teach Schneider to play second base), but if you could put together a team of current players who are your favorites to watch, who would be on it? Not necessarily the best guys in the league, but the guys who you most enjoy watching.

Here's my team. This isn't necessarily an All-Star team (although a lot of them are). It's just guys I like to watch:

C - Paul LoDuca
1B - Paul Konerko
2B - Ray Durham
3B - Chone Figgins
SS - Miguel Tejada
LF - Barry Bonds
CF - Andruw Jones
RF - Vladimir Guerrero

Bench:
Miguel Cabrera
Juan Pierre
Luis Castillo
Jim Thome
Mike Piazza
Manny Ramirez

SP - Dontrelle Willis
SP - Pedro Martinez
SP - Mark Buerhle
SP - Jake Peavy
SP - Jamie Moyer

Bullpen:
Trevor Hoffman
Mariano Rivera
Chad Cordero
Roberto Hernandez
Neal Cotts
Tom Gordon

Ok, so that's pretty much an All-Star team. And I know that Cabrera (or Wright or Chavez, etc) should start ahead of Figgins... but you just have to have Figgins in the starting lineup. Right?

It's here

Baseball Tonight (I know) is on and the first game of the year is less than an hour away.

It looks like John Kruk got a new hair piece. But I think he has it on backwards.

(Almost) Opening Day Randomness

Various things I think I think:

• This article says the American League is strong and it's true. What's scary is that while the AL has won six of the past eight World Series, most folks forget that the only champs from the NL in that time are the Florida Marlins. And at this point, I'm not even sure that the NL is proud to call the Marlins their own.
• In that same story, Ozzie Guillen says this, "It's a different ballgame," says White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen, who watched the NL closely as a coach with Montreal and Florida for three seasons before taking his current job in 2004. "People think that there is all of this difference in strategy. The only strategy is the double-switch. "In the American League, I can hit-and-run with my six, seven, eight and nine hitters, and I can bunt. In the National League, I can't move guys over there because the pitcher is batting behind them and what am I gonna do?" That's an interesting point, particularly for those of us who think all the strategy takes place in the NL. Maybe the DH isn't such a bad thing.
  Barry Bonds is everyone's favorite steroid whipping boy. I have a hard time getting all worked up about it, especially considering that the allegations in the hot new book come from: 1) an estranged ex-girlfriend, 2) illegally obtained grand jury documents, and 3) drug dealers and pseudo-scientists. Those of you who are familiar with baseball history will recall though that illegally obtained, leaked grand jury testimony was all that was needed to convict (if only in baseball's terms) the 8 men who were banned from baseball from the White Sox 1919 pennant winners.
• Home Depot says it doesn't want to participate in any promotional efforts celebrating Barry Bonds because of the steroid rumors and allegations. Home Depot (owned by the owner of the NFL's Falcons) instead prefers to put its money behind athletes who use pseudonyms and knowingly infect women with STDs.
• Are you familiar with the chain of restaurants known as The Rusty Pelican? For whatever reason, their website only features one Southern California location. Regardless, what is a rusty pelican? I didn't know that animals could become rusty. Should I be worried?
• My pet peeve: referring to the total value of a player's contract without referencing the length of the deal. Today I heard about a $50 million contract extension for David Ortiz. Now, if that's a 2 or 3-year deal, it's pretty expensive. If it's a 5 or 6-year deal, it's too cheap. The value of a contract doesn't make sense without talking about its duration.
• Only one new stadium (new Busch in St. Louis) and no new uniforms? That's kind of a blah start to the season. Yeah, the Nats have new alternate jerseys, but that's kind of minor. Edit: Oops - there will be more new things this year. I'm still not sold on those freaky helmets though.
• This is a great story. I wish they'd run it on the front page of every sports section everyday.
• If you don't cheer for George Mason this weekend, you have no soul. If you're cheering for the Gators to beat GMU, well... I will pray for the soul that you don't have.

I had a lot more, but I can't remember any of it right now. Oh well, maybe it will come back to me.

Everyone Else Gets a Free Pass

We've all seen the photos of how Barry Bonds' head has grown, how has chest has expanded, and how his biceps are now (each) the size of a small town. Lost in all of that is how he's not alone. In fact, he's far from it.

Some of the guys who have "grown" over the years include the steroid suspects (or the outright guilty). Rafael Palmeiro, for instance:

Before:

After:

How about some other guys? You know - the guys who (at least as far as we're always told by the media) are clean/steroid-free... I'm not saying that these guys are steroid users (or that they ever were). All I'm saying is that some of them have undergone some pretty amazing physical transformations over the years.

Jeff Bagwell
As a youngster:

More recently:

Frank Thomas

Rookie card:

As a grown man:

The Thomas rookie card shocks me. I've always thought of Frank as a big guy, but if you took his name off of that rookie card, I wouldn't ever guess that it was him.

Alex Rodriguez

Rookie card:

More recently:

Yeah, they're just pictures. And yeah, there's all kinds of "evidence" against Bonds. Mostly we just don't know details about guys who weren't working with BALCO because their suppliers weren't busted. That doesn't mean that no one else is/was using steroids.

But we seem to be doing a good job of separating the users from the non-users by just looking at people. So if we're convicting guys based on pictures and hat sizes, let's make sure that we get them all.

A real QB in Miami

As you know, I am anything but a Dolphins fan. But this is exciting news: the Dolphins, at long last have a real QB. I mean, they finally have a guy who's capable of taking them to the next level. It's been a long time since a certain legend retired, but now the Dolphins might have the answer at quarterback. For the first time in decades, they'll have a guy under center who's capable of leading his team to a Super Bowl -- and not embarassing himself when he gets there. It's an exciting time to be a Dolphins fan. They haven't had a QB with this kind of ability since Bob Griese retired.

And even if you're (like me) not a Dolphins fan, you have to be excited about the prospects of having a guy who's gotten into some headline making trouble in Minnesota (freaking Minnesota). If Daunte can make off field headlines in Minneapolis-St. Paul, he could be a lot of fun in the magic city of Miami.

Bringing the Thunder

Randomness. Complete and utter randomness:

• I got my hands on one of Wiggins' college papers. Apparently he went to USF for a little while.
• Have your pets found The Lord? Maybe it's time.
• The Simpsons - for real.
• This dude started for the USA in the World Baseball Classic. Are you kidding me?
• Remember the whole 7th Floor Crew mess for The U? Something similar happened at Michigan, but it wasn't made into a big deal... mainly because the song is really bad (as in, I could rap better than that).
• There's only one place you need to go for baseball previews (AL here and NL here). I mean, where else are you going to get insight and analysis like this (from the Cubs preview):

  Strength: Catcher Michael Barrett won the Silver Slugger award last year, which is apparently given to a random player whose name is drawn out of a hat.
  Weakness: Derek Lee just missed the triple crown last year when he fucked it up in the end of the season. Expect the Cubs to get less production out of him this year, as last year was a fluke.
  Question mark: Kerry Wood may not be ready in time for opening day. That sentence should be engraved on a plaque on the wall of the manager's office at Wrigley Field.
  Outlook: Mark Prior was dangled as trade bait in the offseason for shortstop Miguel Tejada, probably because the Cubs would prefer someone who is actually good, rather than someone who is theoretically good.

Cuban Time

The WBC game between Cuba and Panama started about ten minutes late today. Apparently the Cubans were trying to employ some "gamesmanship" during the lineup card exchange process. Most of the teams in the WBC have been forthcoming with their lineups and pitching plans (Buck Martinez laid out Team USA's plan for game one against Mexico at least a week prior to the first pitch, for anyone who wanted to hear about it). The Cubans took a different angle on the whole thing.

After issuing not one, not two, but three lineups before the game, the Cubans spent ten minutes at the plate before turning their lineup card over. Based on what the radio announcers are saying, it sounds like the Cubans went with their original lineup. It's not clear at this point whether there was some sort of an issue (illness to a player, someone missed a meeting/workout, etc) or if this really was some sort of gamesmanship. If it's the latter, I'm not sure what it's supposed to accomplish. Normally the exchanging of lineup cards is a mere formality. Over the course of a major league season, managers often send their coaches, and sometimes even players, out to handle the duties. To make it into an issue is odd. I wonder what will come out of this. Maybe the Cubans had some issues with the ground rules at the stadium.

Edit: I think the Cubans really want to win today and/or they're panicked. There are two on and one out in the bottom of the first and they already have two relievers warming up in the pen. And yes, they do have their ace on the hill.

Reason # 1,256,489 that Wiggins wants to be President

And no one gives you a hard time about it.

I'm getting into the WBC

Now that it's finally underway, I'm really getting into the WBC. I suppose I'm supposed to be all about Team USA, but I'm really just excited about watching some great baseball players -- even if the overall quality of play isn't great.

I thought that XM's radio coverage was interesting. While I don't know if it was intentional or not, the crowd noise during both games I listened to (the US - Mexico and the Dominican Republic - Venezuela) was loud. When you consider the relatively small size of the crowds, it was even louder than that. Maybe the XM folks were trying to drown out the volume on their announcers. That wasn't necessary, although that's what often happened. XM's play-by-play coverage generally consists of their hosts from 175 for these WBC games. The play-by-play calls are good, but not the professional voices that you're used to. Still, it was nice for me, as a regular XM 175 listener to hear some of the voices that I've become so familiar with over the past year or so.

Random: Of all the things that people are complaining about with this tournament, why isn't anyone talking about the fact that minor league umpires are being used? I mean, this is a "world championship" and it's being officiated by minor leaguers. Something's wrong with that. Maybe it will be more of an issue after Miguel Cabrera's disputed home run/double today (even though it ultimately didn't affect the outcome of the game).

Oh yeah, and the Yankees are complaining. Surprise, surprise. It seems that fans aren't turning out in Tampa because some of the star power is missing. I thought the Yanks were supposed to have great, loyal fans. Apparently their fans are loyal so long as their are superstars to watch... early in spring training.

Willie Mays said something rather profound the other day. He was wishing that the WBC had been around in his day, as he said he would have liked to have represented the USA. What came next was the interesting part: Mays said that he wasn't sure if he'd have started on the team back in his day. On the surface, that's rather tough to believe (Mays was third all-time in home runs until recently; he was a great defender and was speedy on the base paths), but it's possibly true. You'd almost have to grant that the corner outfield spots would be manned by Hank Aaron and Frank Robinson. Those two are two of the all-time greats of all the all-time greats. That leaves only one outfield spot (and keep in mind, we're talking about the days before the DH); Mays wasn't sure if he'd have started ahead of Mickey Mantle. I'm not sure who I would have picked. That's a tough call. Those are the types of calls (ok, maybe we'll never see something like a Mays/Mantle issue ever again) that the WBC was built to create. Maybe we'll see more of them the next time around (in 2009) if everyone starts buying into this tournament. If they play it in November next time, I think we will.

It was nice knowing ya'

Apparently Fred Rouse isn't balling for the Noles anymore. What a shame - he always seemed like such a good kid.

Since it's MP3 week at The U

I'll bring back this little diddy. I'd never heard the whole Winslow rant before. I'd heard the end, but not what got him wound up. You can almost hear the craziness building within him as the reporters pepper Winslow with questions.

No, I'm not advocating this or anything about Winslow. I just thought it was funny.

Go Vikings!

Lock up the women and children: the Vikings are coming!

Pre-game Speeches

First of all, I'm well aware that Miami lost the FSU game. Still, this is pretty funny stuff. First, listen to the clip of Michael Irvin recounting the (apparently ineffective) speech that he gave to the Canes before their season opener against Florida State. Then listen to "Fake Howard Schnellenberger" give his speech to the FAU Owls before their season opener. It's pretty funny stuff.

All of the audio comes from Dan LeBatard's radio show, which can also be very funny at times.

Michael Irvin

Fake Howard

I love these little videos

Beason (#2) was flagged for roughing the quarterback on this play. It's a heck of a hit, but the ball was fumbled about 90 yards away and the QB is effectively on defense at this point, trying to make a tackle.

T-minus Twenty-Four Hours

We're about 24-hours from gametime. Or, we're about 24 - 27-hours from Wiggins and I going off of speaking terms.

Whatever the case may be, I thought I'd share one last Hester video.

Also, 18-packs of beer are $3.99 at Publix this weekend. Life is good. I hope that I go to bed tomorrow night as happy as I am right now.

Debo

Devin's gotten loose a couple times over the years against the Gators. Monday night could be his chance to do the same against the Noles.

Devin meets the Gators.

The last time we saw Devin.